Explaining the EveryDistrict Nationwide State Competitiveness Map.
The EveryDistrict Nationwide State Competitiveness Map provides a roadmap for how Democrats start rebuilding power at the state level. With this map, you’ll be able to find the competitive legislative districts in your community that hold the key to winning power back for Democrats.
In Virginia in 2017, Democrats rallied around the “Hillary 17” – 17 winnable districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that were held by Republicans at the state legislative level. Now, using this map, we can organize in every competitive state legislative district in the country.
So, check out the Senate and House maps by clicking on a state, and read more below to understand how these maps work. To get the most out of the map, click on a district to learn more!
What is EveryDistrict’s approach to evaluating districts?
We evaluated the results of statewide elections in every state legislative district to determine a Legislative District Index (LDI) score. This score represents the average vote in a representative statewide race within that district. We pull out any big blowouts that might skew the results. A score of 100 means that statewide Democrats average 100 percent of the vote and a -100 means that Republicans average 100 percent of the vote. For a more realistic example, a district with a score of -2 votes for Republicans in statewide elections by about a two percent margin on average.
Based on that score, we assign an incumbent ranking and a color to each district.
What do the colors mean?
Dark Blue – This receives a ranking of “D-Safe.” It is held by a Democrat and leans Democratic in its LDI. In the current political environment, we would expect to hold these seats.
Light Blue – This receives a ranking of “D-Leans R.” It is held by a Democrat but leans Republican in its LDI. These are the seats Democrats will need to do the most to defend.
Yellow – This receives a ranking of “R-Leans D.” It is held by a Republican but leans Democratic in its LDI. These are the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.
Pink – This receives a ranking of “R-Leans R.” It is held by a Republican and leans Republican in its LDI. It has an LDI score between 0 and -5. These are strong pickup opportunities for Democrats in a favorable year like 2018.
Red – This receives a ranking of “R-Safe.” It is held by a Republican and has an LDI score of less than -5.
Other colors refer to unique situations in certain states. The orange seats in New York are held by members of the Independent Democratic Coalition (IDC), a group that gives Republicans a majority in the State Senate. We want to elect Democrats who want to build a Democratic majority in their place.
The pink seats in Alaska are Republicans and Independents who caucus with the Democrats to create a Democratic majority in the state house. We want to support them.
There are other colors in some states that are mostly minor party representatives. Click on a district to learn more.
Why do the Republican pickup opportunities stop at R+5 when there have been Democratic wins in more conservative seats?
In 2006, Democrats had a 6 point advantage when they took back the House of Representatives. We think that sort of swing is a reasonable place to start. As we get closer to November, we’ll add in other districts that could be competitive if Democrats continue to build momentum.
Are those the right districts in North Carolina?
We’re waiting on the courts, like everyone else, and so are using the “old” maps as placeholders. We’ll update when the time comes.
You’re missing a recent special election result!
Shoot us a note at firstname.lastname@example.org and we’ll correct it. We’re trying to keep an eye on these things!
This is cool. What do I do now?
We’re going to be raising money for candidates across these districts. You can donate to provide direct support to EveryDistrict-endorsed candidates.
What comes next?
We need you to become a fundraising champion to support the candidates across the country that we have endorsed. Becoming a fundraising champion is not about being a big donor. It’s about donating at a level you’re comfortable with – and then organizing your friends to do the same. You can learn more, and sign up to become a fundraising champion here.