Announcing: Our 2022 Target States
In 2022, EveryDistrict will be targeting state legislative races in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
We chose these three states based on the political situation on the ground, the value we can add to our endorsed campaigns, and, ultimately, our organization’s mission: Flipping state legislatures from red to blue.
Here are a few different factors we considered when choosing these three targets:
They are already close to flipping at least one chamber. Across AZ, MI, and PA, a net gain of just 18 seats would prevent Republican trifectas. A net gain of 29 would give Democrats legislative majorities in all six chambers! We expect that, at most, 100,000 votes will determine whether Democrats come out ahead.
Redistricting improved (or at least scrambled) the maps. In MI and PA, thanks to years of advocacy, previously super-rigged maps transformed into even playing fields. In AZ, the numbers didn’t shift too much, but Democrats are still just one seat away from control in each chamber – and the combination of open seats and demographic change improve our odds.
We can add votes to critical top-of-ticket races. Research shows that running competitive state legislative races can boost vote share at the top of the ticket by 0.4% to 2.3%. That could be the margin of victory for Senator Mark Kelly in AZ and the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in PA. All three states also have competitive races for U.S. House, Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State. And speaking of Secretary of State races…
We can prevent legislatures from sabotaging the 2024 elections. Right now, the greatest threat to free and fair elections is from state legislatures. Not only are “Big Lie” Republican legislators restricting our freedom to vote – they are actively moving various pieces of election administration and vote counting from the Secretary of State to the legislature. There are even signs that some Supreme Court justices might be open to an obscure legal theory called “independent legislature doctrine,” which says that state legislatures have unlimited power to manipulate election laws. Breaking a Republican majority in even one chamber could stop them from enshrining the “Big Lie” into law.
We are building cycle over cycle. While we can’t ignore the immediate threats to our democracy, we also know we’re in this for the long haul. This will be the third cycle EveryDistrict is working in AZ, MI, and PA, and we’re continuously building new relationships, gaining new insights into the politics of each state, and bringing more candidates (past, present, and future!), campaign staff, grassroots donors, and organizational partners into our movement. AZ, MI, and PA will remain battleground states beyond 2022 and even 2024, and we’ll build on what we’ve learned to make the maximum impact going forward.
What about the other states?
As we just said above, we are in this work for the long haul. We continue to remain in touch with partners and candidates in other states where EveryDistrict has previously made investments and remain just as committed to building Democratic legislative majorities in those states as our three target states this year.
The 2020 election results made clear that money alone won’t build legislative majorities. As we’ll talk about more soon, EveryDistrict is deepening our programming this year to not just give money to candidates, but to work with our candidates and partners to implement programming that will build long-term legislative majorities.
Our three 2022 target states have short-term opportunities to build legislative majorities, and we will continue to work with partners and candidates in other states to hold onto the progress we’ve made and build for the long term.
If you’re excited to continue this work with us, we need your help. Make a donation, follow us on Twitter @Every_District, and share this with your family and friends to get them invested in this work, too.
Questions? Email our team at firstname.lastname@example.org.