MI Endorsements: The Deep Dive
EveryDistrict is excited to announce eight endorsements in Michigan today. Click here to learn more about the eight candidates we’ve endorsed and how you can get involved to support their campaigns.
With brand new district lines in 2022, the path to the majority has changed significantly. The big headline is this: Michigan is one of the best opportunities Democrats have to flip both legislative chambers in a state blue in 2022.
The Quick History
In the State Senate, Democrats hold 16 out of 38 seats. Democrats need to flip three districts to tie the chamber and four to flip it. Senate districts are only on the ballot every four years, so this is a pivotal year for State Senate races in Michigan.
In the State House, Democrats now hold 53 out of 110 seats (thanks to Carol Glanville who flipped a House district blue just last week). Democrats need to flip two districts to tie the chamber and three to flip it.
Thanks to the new Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC), Michigan went from one of the most gerrymandered states to a level playing field. (Click here to read our deep dive on Michigan redistricting.)
How EveryDistrict Ranks Districts
But first, a quick explainer on how EveryDistrict is ranking districts in 2022.
Those of you who are familiar with our work know that in the past, we have ranked districts using the EveryDistrict Legislative District Index (LDI). The LDI is a numerical score calculated by EveryDistrict using past performance by national and statewide candidates to understand the baseline competitiveness of a legislative district. For example, a district with a score of +10 would, on average, vote for Democrats by 10 points. Put another way, we would expect the average Democratic candidate to win that district with 55% of the vote, with the Republican candidate getting 45%.
In 2022, we are ranking districts in five categories: Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Battleground, Lean Republican, and Likely Republican.
Battleground districts are the majority-making districts that we expect to be decided by close margins. With redistricting scrambling district lines, some incumbents who previously represented safer districts now find themselves in a competitive race.
With our 2022 endorsements, EveryDistrict is concentrating our support to Lean Democratic and Battleground districts, endorsing a mix of incumbents and challengers depending on the districts that will make or break a majority in each chamber.
Click here for our full 2022 Michigan district rankings spreadsheet. Later in the year, we may update district rankings as candidates emerge from primaries and dynamics shift on the ground.
Building a Majority in the Senate
Democrats currently hold 16 Senate seats. EveryDistrict has ranked 13 Senate districts as Likely Democratic and 15 Senate districts as Likely Republican.
The majority will be won among the three Lean Democratic districts and seven Battleground districts. To get the 20 seats they need, Democrats need to hold the three Lean Democratic districts and win four Battleground districts.
EveryDistrict has endorsed one candidate in a Lean Democratic district (the other two have primaries): Rosemary Bayer. EveryDistrict has endorsed four candidates in Battleground districts: Darrin Camilleri, Padma Kuppa, Kevin Hertel, and Kristen McDonald Rivet.
Building a Majority in the House
Democrats currently hold 53 House seats. EveryDistrict has ranked 40 districts as Likely Democratic, two districts as Lean Democratic, one district as Lean Republican, and 44 districts as Likely Republican.
The majority will be won among the 23 Battleground districts. There are seven incumbents running in Battleground districts. Democrats need to win the 42 Likely Democratic and Lean Democratic seats, hold the seven Battleground seats with Democratic incumbents, and win seven additional Battleground seats for the majority.
EveryDistrict has endorsed three challengers in Battleground districts: Jaime Churches, Robert Kull, and Jennifer Conlin.
We’re excited to begin work with these eight amazing leaders, and we expect to add additional endorsements after the Michigan primary on August 2.
How You Can Get Involved
The Michigan legislature is going to be one of the most hotly contested state legislative battlegrounds in the country. EveryDistrict’s eight endorsed candidates are running in must-win districts directly on the path to a majority in both chambers.
You can make a difference right now by making a donation. 100% of what you give will go directly to our eight endorsed candidates: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/everydistrict-mi-2022.
Check out EveryDistrict’s Mobilize page for volunteer opportunities – whether you live in Michigan or elsewhere across the country there are ways for you to get involved: https://www.mobilize.us/everydistrict.
Questions? Email Team EveryDistrict at firstname.lastname@example.org.