PA Endorsements: The Deep Dive
EveryDistrict is excited to announce ten endorsements in Pennsylvania today. Click here to learn more about the ten candidates we’ve endorsed and how you can get involved to support their campaigns.
The Quick History
In the State Senate, Democrats hold 21 out of 50 seats. Democrats need to flip four districts to tie the chamber and five to flip it. Half of the PA Senate is on the ballot every two years; this year, the even-numbered districts are up for election.
In the State House, Democrats hold 90 out of 203 seats. Democrats need to flip 12 districts to flip the chamber.
Thanks to a relatively fair redistricting process, Pennsylvania remains a competitive legislative battleground where Democrats have a clear path to the majority in both chambers. (Click here to read our deep dive on Pennsylvania redistricting.)
How EveryDistrict Ranks Districts
But first, a quick explainer on how EveryDistrict is ranking districts in 2022.
Those of you who are familiar with our work know that in the past, we have ranked districts using the EveryDistrict Legislative District Index (LDI). The LDI is a numerical score calculated by EveryDistrict using past performance by national and statewide candidates to understand the baseline competitiveness of a legislative district. For example, a district with a score of +10 would, on average, vote for Democrats by 10 points. Put another way, we would expect the average Democratic candidate to win that district with 55% of the vote, with the Republican candidate getting 45%.
In 2022, we are ranking districts in five categories: Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Battleground, Lean Republican, and Likely Republican.
Battleground districts are the majority-making districts that we expect to be decided by close margins. With redistricting scrambling district lines, some incumbents who previously represented safer districts now find themselves in a competitive race.
With our 2022 endorsements, EveryDistrict is concentrating our support to Battleground districts, endorsing challengers in the districts Democrats need to flip to win a majority.
Click here for our full 2022 Pennsylvania district rankings spreadsheet. Later in the year, we may update district rankings as dynamics shift on the ground.
Building a Majority in the Senate
Democrats currently hold 21 Senate seats. EveryDistrict has ranked 18 Senate districts as Likely Democratic and 20 Senate districts as Likely Republican.
The majority will be won among the three Lean Democratic districts and seven Battleground districts. To get the 26 seats they need, Democrats need to hold the three Lean Democratic districts (all of which are on the ballot this year) and win five Battleground districts.
Four Battleground districts are on the ballot this year. EveryDistrict has endorsed one candidate in a Battleground district: Ann Marie Mitchell. (Stay tuned for additional endorsements now that the primary has concluded.)
Building a Majority in the House
Democrats currently hold 90 House seats. EveryDistrict has ranked 80 districts as Likely Democratic, nine districts as Lean Democratic, six districts as Lean Republican, and 90 districts as Likely Republican.
The majority will be won among the 18 Battleground districts. To get the 102 seats they need, Democrats need to win the 80 Likely Democratic and nine Lean Democratic seats and flip at least 13 Battleground districts.
EveryDistrict has endorsed eight challengers in Battleground districts: Paul Friel, Arvind Venkat, Paul Takac, Sara Agerton, Gwen Stoltz, Brian Munroe, Melissa Cerrato, Cathy Spahr, and Lisa Borowski. (Stay tuned for additional endorsements now that the primary has concluded.)
How You Can Get Involved
In 2022, the stakes in Pennsylvania are higher than ever. The new Republican nominee for governor is a Big Lie-spreading Trump Republican who participated in the January 6 insurrection. The U.S. Senate race could decide control of the chamber for the next two years.
The Pennsylvania legislature is going to be one of the most hotly contested state legislative battlegrounds in the country. EveryDistrict’s ten endorsed candidates are running in must-win districts directly on the path to a majority in both chambers.
Your support for EveryDistrict’s endorsed candidates will help flip districts blue and help the entire Democratic ticket in the Keystone state.
You can make a difference right now by making a donation. 100% of what you give will go directly to our eight endorsed candidates: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/everydistrict-pa-2022.
Check out EveryDistrict’s Mobilize page for volunteer opportunities – whether you live in Pennsylvania or elsewhere across the country there are ways for you to get involved: https://www.mobilize.us/everydistrict.
Questions? Email Team EveryDistrict at firstname.lastname@example.org.